Policy dividend is no longer highlighting the aftereffects of home appliances: more inventory

The Ministry of Commerce recently stated that the home appliance trade-in policy will not be continued after the expiry of December 31 this year. This week is the last supper.

Reporters visited the store and found that many stores posted prompt posters indicating that the policy was about to expire at the door and in the prominent location on the venue, and carried out promotional activities accordingly. For example, Gome launched the "New Year shopping feast", "new trade" marketing countdown activities, 3C products will be the highest price reductions of up to 35%.

According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, as the policy is about to withdraw from the effects, the country’s sales of home appliances have recently been accelerating, releasing some consumer demand in advance. In the first 11 months, retail sales of home appliances increased by 20.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4% over the previous 10 months.

Behind the prosperity, companies have to face the aftereffects of policy exits, slowing market growth, overcapacity, and cost pressures to erode profits. In 2012, the winter of home appliance market will continue.

The policy withdrew from the last bus effect to boost volume

Guangzhou Guomei Guangxuan Manager Dong Lihui told the Southern Reporter that the recent sales of home appliance replacements have obviously increased. In particular, in the last month, compared with the past, sales of “replacement for new products” have increased nearly threefold.

According to data from the Ministry of Commerce’s home appliance trade-through system, as of November 30, 2011, the nation’s home appliance replacement policy drove household appliance consumption to exceed 300 billion yuan, reaching 300.42 billion yuan. The home appliance trade-in policy began in 2009 and was piloted in 2009. It was originally scheduled to end in May 2010, and will continue until December 2011 when it expires.

As the sales growth of white electricity has fallen sharply in recent months, the market has previously generally expected the possibility of delaying the three major Huimin home appliance policies under the government's basic direction of “expanding domestic demand”. A few days ago, the Ministry of Commerce stated that it was reporting to the State Council in conjunction with relevant departments that this work was completed as scheduled. The formal announcement of the Ministry of Commerce's formal end of policy has broken market expectations.

Prior to this, the policy of home appliances to the countryside began to gradually withdraw. At the end of November this year, the “three provinces and one city” policy for home appliances to the countryside in Shandong, Henan, Sichuan, and Qingdao had already ended as scheduled. The policy of home appliances going to the countryside in other provinces and cities will also stop at the end of next year or early next year. At the end of May this year, the home appliances energy-saving policy was officially ended.

Dong Lihui said that the effect of the policy has been very obvious. Take "replacement of old ones" as an example, the current percentage has reached about 30%. It is reported that the Ministry of Commerce is studying to consider some new consumer promotion measures.

Enterprises face three challenges

With the continuous withdrawal of policies, enterprises have to face the three tests of market decline, cost pressure, and excess production capacity.

According to the statistics of the National Information Center, in October this year, domestic refrigerator sales decreased by 9.64% compared to the same period last year; washing machines were slightly better, sales fell 8.17% year-on-year; air-conditioning was the most serious, and sales fell 12.11% year-on-year. The same is true for Black Power. According to the latest research report from the Consumer Electronics Survey Office of the China Electronic Chamber of Commerce, the sales volume of China's flat-panel TV market in 2011 was 38 million units, which failed to meet the sales expectations of most TV companies. The report also predicts that in 2012 China's flat-panel TV market will witness the first decline in the consumption chain.

The profit situation is also not good. According to data from wind and Caitong Securities, sales of domestic appliances in the industry in 2009 grew by less than 5% year-on-year, but profits increased by 65.33% year-on-year. In the first three quarters of this year, the industry sales growth rate reached 26.45%, but the profit growth rate was only 4.84% year-on-year. The change of raw materials is the direct cause. This year, domestic copper prices have slowly dropped from the high of 72,000 yuan/ton in April to the level near June 2010, but the price increase is still 93% of the 2009 low.

What is worrying is that in the high-growth phase of the policy-driven industry, companies have pushed production capacity year after year through expansion or cross-border growth. Taking the refrigerator as an example, since the implementation of the Home Appliances to the Countryside Policy in 2009, under the condition that the number of original brand brands has not changed, Baishi, Huari and other veteran refrigerator companies have found space. Soi, distinguished, commander, and a large number of new ice-washing companies There have also emerged. Blackcom such as Konka, Skyworth cross-border refrigerator project. In addition, the first-line brand Haier Hefei has an annual output of 3 million sets of energy-saving and environmental-friendly refrigerators. The technical transformation project will be completed and put into operation this year, and its domestic production capacity will be close to 20 million units. Meiling has raised 1.2 billion yuan to build energy conservation and environmental protection refrigerator projects, luxury refrigerator production projects, and freezer expansion projects. The goal is to achieve annual sales of 10 million units by 2013.

Not only that, the rapid development of the air conditioning market in 2010 prompted companies to expand production, Gree, Midea, Haier did not allow, and more second-line air-conditioning companies such as Galanz and Oaks to join. The substantial expansion of production has not been digested by the market but has brought about a large amount of inventory. According to public data, the growth rate of terminal sales in cold weather in 2011 was slightly lower than that of domestic sales of 39.5%, and the total inventory of air-conditioning industry reached 16.2 million units, an increase of 3.95 million units from 12.25 million units in the 2010 cold year. 32.2%, this inventory level has reached twice as much as in 2009.

According to Han Wei, director of Ovid Consulting's White Electric Research Center, in 2010, the total volume of domestic air conditioners for domestic sales plus exports was about 100 million units, but the actual production capacity reached more than 150 million units; the total sales volume of refrigerators was 70 million units, but the production capacity exceeded 1.2. Billion Taiwan.

The deduction data provided by Orvi Consulting to Southern Reporters showed that the probability of a decline in the growth rate of the domestic air-conditioning market in the 2012 refrigerated year has increased. The growth rate has fallen from the previous two years by more than 30%, and the growth rate has dropped or even has a negative growth probability. Very big.


Peng Yi, Director of Research and Development, China Yikang:

Next year, the decline in white electricity is higher than that of black electricity.

Peng Ye, research director of Zhongkang, believes that in recent years policies such as energy-efficient air-conditioning subsidies, home appliances to rural areas, and trade-in replacements have led to an overdraft in the overall consumption capacity of the Chinese home appliance market. This year, the overall household electrical appliance production capacity surplus, the real estate market downturn, and raw material operating costs have increased. Such unfavorable factors will continue into 2012, resulting in the next year's home appliance market is not optimistic.

Peng Yu predicts that the overall market will continue to maintain positive growth in 2012, but the growth rate will drop by 2%-3%, of which white electricity will drop even more than black power. “Because the policy pull effect is more obvious to white power, the impact of policy exit is also Bigger."

However, there may still be surprises next year. Companies have already expected the growth rate to slow down in 2012. Therefore, they will pay more attention to product structure adjustment and industrial upgrading. In addition, there are variables of cost changes. Therefore, the current situation may not be worse in 2012 than the current year.

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