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Color TV is the earliest home appliance that enters Chinese families, and every household has a TV. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of 2012, color TV is the largest household electric appliance owned by 100 households. In the city, the number of TVs per 100 households is 122.3, and the number of households in rural TV is 116.9, which is a significant amount of data. Leading air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines and other types of white appliances. There is still room for growth in the refrigerators and washing machines, whether in the cities or in rural areas. However, color TV sets, whether rural or urban, have more than one television.
The early development and high penetration rate have created a very high market for color TVs. According to Zhong Yikang’s calculations, the number of Chinese LCD TVs in 2017 is 380 million units, plus more than 130 million CRT TVs, and China’s color TVs have more than 500 million units. The color TV market is mature and stable, with annual sales of 40 million to 50 million units. Over 100 million CRT TVs and LCD TVs that have exceeded their years of use are waiting to be replaced, so 80% of the annual sales are replacement purchases. Only 20% are new purchases, and over time, incremental purchases are gradually decreasing. 
Replacement market sales stability
We will analyze the characteristics of the purchase by replacing the purchases and the new purchases into four categories according to the motivation of the purchase.
New purchases can be divided into two types based on the purchase motivation. The first is to buy a new wedding or buy a new home. This type is affected by the number of newly married couples each year. The second is the purchase of the second machine. It means that the original family had a TV. However, because of the improvement in the housing area or the improvement of economic conditions, it is now necessary to purchase a second TV as a bedroom TV. This type is influenced by factors of real estate and consumer spending power. Overall, new purchases continue to shrink.
Replacement purchase is the top priority of the color TV market, and can be divided into two categories according to the purchase motivation. The original TV is broken and new television is needed. This proportion is less. The largest part of TV buyers’ home TVs are old, coupled with the requirements for size, clarity, network video, etc., need to replace the original TV in the home. This type of purchase has a major feature. From the moment of purchase motivation to the actual purchase of the TV, there is a time frame for purchase. This time range may be forward or backward. A user saw a certain brand of Internet TV copyrighted by the Premier League and bought a TV. This part of the consumer willingness is stimulated by products or promotional activities, and the market is overdrawn. However, in contrast to this type of crowd, another group of people hold a wait-and-see attitude when buying. From the beginning of purchase intention, compare brands, products, and channels, and wait until the event or promotion. Market demand was shelved at this time. The motives and purchasing ratios of these groups have created a stable sales in the replacement color TV market over the long term. The annual sales volume of 40 million units can be maintained, but there are differences between the years and years.
There are two natural enemies in the replacement market. The first natural enemy is advanced overdraft, and the second largest natural enemy is the price increase. In 2017, the color TV market encountered two major natural enemies and the market experienced a decline. In 2016, Internet brands and e-commerce channels achieved explosive growth through product prices, and large-scale publicity also stimulated the willingness of some consumers to purchase, with sales reaching 52 million units. This is the historical peak of color TV. In addition, due to the relationship between supply and demand for color TV products in 2017, the panel price has increased, and the average price of color TV products has increased by about RMB 400, which in turn has caused some users’ desire to purchase to be lagging behind. According to our calculation, the price of the product will increase by 100 yuan, and the market scale will decrease by 2 to 3 percentage points.
2018 will resume growth now
“Suddenly Declined, and Extremely Tailai†is a word in Zhouyi. It tells us that everything in the world is in a dynamic balance. The color TV market is no exception. In the past 10 years, the market size of the color TV market has been wavy, with some ups and downs. After a large increase, the market decline has followed. In the past 10 years, the market capacity of color TV has two peaks. The first was in 2013, when smart TV exceeded the number of non-smart TVs for the first time, and it was also the last year when energy-saving subsidies were withdrawn from the market. TV sales in the color TV industry reached its highest point at that time, with a total market of 50.46 million units. In 2014, the market entered the adjustment period in 2015. The market peaked again in 2016. The current situation is very similar to the situation after the high peak in 2013 has passed. In 2017, the market experienced a large decline, with a conservative estimate of 5 to 10 percentage points. The situation in 2016, 2017 and 2018 is very similar to that in 2013, 2014 and 2015.
Therefore, we have determined that after the overdraft market in 2016, sales volume will decline in 2017. In 2018, the market will enter the adjustment period and it is expected to sell 51.19 million units. The market size is greater than 2017, but less than 2016.
Panel prices enter the falling range
From May onwards, the panel price hike for 14 consecutive months has stopped and the panel price has fallen into the falling range. August 65-inch panel prices have dropped to 375 US dollars, is expected to fall in September will also be 15 US dollars. The panel prices for other sizes will also drop by around US$5. The panel price is generally a period of six months to one year. It is expected that the current panel price will continue until the second half of 2018. The decrease in panel prices has brought about a reduction in business operating pressure. The overall price is expected to fall back to 3085 yuan in 2018.
TV brand product upgrade continues
As a home entertainment center, color TVs are even faster than other home appliances. Entering 2017, artificial intelligence has achieved initial success. TVs with artificial intelligence will shine in 2018. The color TV industry, the original 4K, curved surface, ultra-thin products in the future is still the market's mainstream products. Quantum-dot TVs and OLED TVs increased significantly in the year-on-year period in 2017. In 2018, the market size will reach 3.19 million units and 550,000 units respectively.
Screen expansion is an irreversible industry trend in the color TV industry. It used to increase at an average rate of 2 inches per year. In 2018, it is expected to reach 49.3 inches, and 55 inches will become the starting size of the living room TV. The proportion of 65-inch market is expected to exceed 8%, and large-screen televisions have ample room for development.
Panel prices fall 2018 TV market will resume growth
Introduction: After the overdraft market in 2016, sales fell in 2017. In 2018, the market will enter the adjustment period and it is expected to sell 51.19 million units. The market size is greater than 2017, but less than 2016.