Cold winter will fall to $ 2.2 billion in photovoltaic equipment spending in 2013

According to the NPD Solarbuzz photovoltaic equipment quarterly report PV Equipment Quarterly, the 2012 solar photovoltaic equipment spending (including crystalline silicon from ingots to components and thin film equipment) fell from a peak of US $ 12.9 billion in 2011 to US $ 3.6 billion, a drop of up to 72%.

Finlay Colville, Vice President of NPD Solarbuzz, said: "Expenditure on photovoltaic equipment is expected to be further reduced to US $ 2.2 billion in 2013, the lowest since 2006. This shows that photovoltaic manufacturers have effectively stopped investing in new capacity and reduced new technology or High-efficiency route equipment upgrade. High-efficiency process equipment contributed very little to shipments in 2012, accounting for less than 5% of total PV equipment expenditure. "

Based on the photovoltaic revenue confirmed in 2012, the leading equipment suppliers are expected to be GT Advanced Technologies, Meyer Burger, Applied Materials and Apollo Solar. The revenue of these suppliers still exceeds 4 Billions of dollars. However, in terms of the entire industry, only 8 suppliers of photovoltaic equipment revenue in 2012 exceeded 100 million US dollars, far less than 23 in 2011.

Just 24 months ago, the backlog of leading equipment suppliers such as GT Advanced Technologies, Meyer Burger, Applied Materials, and Centrotherm all reached more than US $ 1 billion; however, there have been few new orders and many cancellations for several consecutive quarters since then, leading to The backlog of photovoltaic equipment fell to its lowest level since the first half of 2006.

"Photovoltaic equipment suppliers have become the victims of their own past success." Colville added, "Overinvestment in 2010 and 2011 caused the current overcapacity and oversupply, and caused the price of the end market to fall, causing many manufacturers to go bankrupt. In the next three years or so, it will be difficult to see backlogs of orders and revenues from photovoltaic equipment that often cost billions of dollars. "

Q1'12-Q4'13 Top 10 PV equipment supplier performance forecast (unit: million US dollars)

NPD Solarbuzz Q1’12-Q4’13 Top Ten PV Equipment Supplier Performance Forecast

Source: NPD Solarbuzz PV Equipment Quarterly

The production capacity of crystalline silicon equipment shipped in 2011 and 2012 is so large that equipment suppliers are most worried about the emergence of second-hand equipment markets in mainland China and Taiwan, because this will delay the recovery of equipment spending. However, this also shows that the photovoltaic industry has not reached a consensus on the technical route, or started a new technology procurement cycle.

"In fact, there are two factors that lead to the continued use of existing equipment. First, the capacity integration between China's first- and second-tier crystalline silicon manufacturers will slow down the withdrawal of China's excess capacity. Second, the trade war may also cause excess capacity to be transferred Overseas countries come to circumvent punitive tariffs, and overseas countries also welcome such transfers because they have created more jobs. ”Colville added.

In 2012, the analysis of the market share of equipment suppliers is of little significance, because most of the revenue comes from the execution of contracts signed in 2011 and before. The focus of equipment suppliers has shifted from market share to how to reorganize production and improve R & D.

"Equipment suppliers finally realized that an efficient process upgrade could not solve the revenue problem in 2013 in the short term. But after the future spending picks up, what kind of technological route will be taken to improve efficiency and win market share." Colville Concluded.

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