Recently, "Fluorescent Lamp Mercury Content Reduction Roadmap" and "Semiconductor Lighting Energy Conservation Industry Planning" (hereinafter referred to as "Planning") have been issued successively. With the past of the incandescent lamp era, traditional high-efficiency lighting products such as energy-saving lamps will usher in explosive growth. From the perspective of long-term development, LED products may be the overlord of the future lighting market, "said Hou Yuxuan, an environmental researcher at CIC Consulting. Good policy "Planning" clearly pointed out that in the next five years, traditional high-efficiency lighting will occupy 70% of the market share, LED lighting will occupy 20%. At the same time, by 2015, all incandescent lamps for general lighting above 60W will be eliminated. This is enough to make most companies enthusiastic to seize the LED market. Zhao Fanghua, secretary of Sunshine Lighting, said that Sunshine Lighting currently focuses on the development of LED and lamps. The sales revenue of LED lighting in 2012 was nearly 400 million, which is a 6-fold increase compared with 2011, accounting for more than 10% of the company's revenue; the target for 2013 is 1 billion, which is 2.5 times of 2012, and will account for 30% of the company's revenue. . Xiamen Topstar Lighting Co., Ltd. also believes that from the perspective of the intensity of competition within the industry, the introduction of relevant policies has greatly improved the technical barriers of the industry, and many SMEs may gradually withdraw from the market. The subsequent adjustment of the market structure will gradually focus the main market demand on several competitive manufacturers. Although the relevant policies directly affect downstream application companies, they are also beneficial to upstream companies. A staff member of Sanan Optoelectronics said that at present, the company's more than 100 MOCVD (key equipment for producing LED epitaxial wafers) are almost fully opened. "One is to phase out incandescent lamps, the second is to gradually reduce the mercury content of fluorescent lamps, and the third is to increase the share of LED lighting, which is very positive for upstream companies." Huawei Electronics (600360.SH) Dr. Wang Xin said that the company mainly provides power for downstream lamp factories. Due to changes in policies, it challenges the production methods, management methods, and technologies of low-end manufacturers. This is conducive to the continuous development of enterprises in the direction of scale and regularization, and eventually low-cost production enterprises are eliminated. Hou Yuxuan also said that at present, the local government is vigorously promoting the popularization of LED lighting to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction, encouraging enterprises to apply it to the transformation of public facility lighting such as public street lighting, public place lighting, government office building lighting, etc. Open. From the price point of view, due to the overcapacity of LED upstream chip manufacturing industry, the government increased subsidies and other factors, the price of LED lighting will be greatly reduced, which will promote the popularity of the market. "Domination" still takes time But can the emerging LED dominate the domestic lighting market in the short term? At present, the domestic energy-saving lamp lighting industry mainly has two markets: traditional high-efficiency lighting products and LED lighting. In the short term, the market for general lighting products such as incandescent lamps and fluorescent lamps will be quickly compressed, which is an opportunity for energy-saving lamps and LEDs. But who can laugh to the end is still suspenseful. Industry analysts believe that energy-saving lamps still seem to have more advantages. Energy-saving lamps tend to be mature and stable in terms of cost, technology and performance. "Unless affected by the price of raw materials, (energy-saving lamps) there is almost no room for cost reduction, and performance has reached the limit." Industry sources said. At present, the cost of an energy-saving lamp is within 1 US dollar, and LED lighting is around 4 US dollars. Such a gap determines that in a short period of time, energy-saving lamps will still occupy the "big head" of the domestic energy-saving lighting market. The policy specifies that the bottom line guarantee of 70% market share is its biggest driving force. Hou Yuxuan also believes that with the passage of the incandescent lamp era, traditional high-efficiency lighting products such as energy-saving lamps will usher in explosive growth. But at the same time, due to a series of support given by national policies, the market is relatively optimistic about the LED market. LEDs are approaching traditional energy-saving lighting, which has led to the closure of many traditional lighting companies in recent years. Therefore, LED is more likely to quickly occupy the lighting market. Zhao Fanghua said that the implementation of the policy is also a key factor in determining who can laugh at the end of energy-saving lamps and LEDs. "This is related to whether the elimination of incandescent lamps can be carried out, the execution is in place, and the speed of execution." Zhao Fanghua said that if the switching is faster, the short-term may have a greater impact on energy-saving lamps, otherwise it is more beneficial to LEDs. This is because the price of energy-saving lamps tends to be stable, while the price of emerging LEDs is still declining. If the price of LEDs is controlled within twice the price of energy-saving lamps, then it is entirely possible for LEDs to replace energy-saving lamps. "It depends on how fast the cost of the LED itself declines and whether it can compete with energy-saving lamps." Zhao Fanghua said. Backward capacity "Planning" clearly pointed out that to promote the average annual growth of LED lighting energy-saving industry output value of about 30%, reaching 450 billion yuan in 2015, including LED lighting application products 180 billion yuan. People in the industry worry that under the temptation of a huge market, blind, low-level expansion will repeat the mistake of overcapacity. During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, China's LED lighting energy-saving industry grew at an average annual rate of more than 35%. According to incomplete statistics, as of the end of 2010, there were more than 5,000 semiconductor lighting companies in China, including about 1,000 companies above designated size. At the end of 2012, the Quality Supervision Bureau and the Industry and Commerce Bureau randomly checked LED lighting products, energy-saving lamps, road lighting, fire emergency lighting and electric light sources throughout the country. The results showed that the qualification rate of LED lighting products was only 51%. Hou Yuxuan believes that the LED downstream lighting market is already at the critical point of overcapacity. Although the industry reshuffle inflection point has arrived in the second half of 2012, due to favorable policies, the industry is very optimistic about the LED lighting market. Most companies continue to expand their production capacity. However, the global economy is weak, LED lighting exports are blocked, and the situation is difficult to improve after domestic sales. Domestic and foreign difficulties cause companies to fall into a situation that contradicts the favorable environment of industry policies. "Although LED lighting is a new generation of lighting technology, but in the industry, its technical content is not even as good as energy-saving lamps." Qi Faxin said that many domestic LED lighting is now small and medium-sized enterprises "assemble", not much is their own thing. He believes that LED upstream chip manufacturing technology and midstream packaging technology are our shortcomings, and downstream companies lack market segmentation and differentiation. LED lighting is a system. Enterprises can improve their competitiveness only by making breakthroughs in technical design, improving product reliability and safety, and market differentiation.
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