[Weekend feature] LED collapse tide: the worst may be the best

[Text|High-tech LED reporter Luo Shenghua] "Want to change the trend of the market, either by turning more empty or bottoming out" Wall Street legend Jesse Livermore used the judgment of the market in the current LED lighting industry. Quite appropriate.

Losing the link, running, closing, and even the tragic jump of the building, near the end of 2014, the LED industry is staged a more realistic version of the "lighting drama" than the US blockbuster, which also contains some The color of sadness.

The LED industry has entered a period of severe survival of the fittest. The stable and stable lighting companies are expanding against the trend, hoping to stabilize their own territory through the expansion and sublimation of channels. Some companies with financial strength have seized the opportunity to merge and integrate themselves and expand their "prints." More LED companies are struggling with the “lifeline” compared to the “sports” of these companies.

When the phenomenon of “closing tides” in LED lighting enterprises is serious enough to call for the bailout policy to become a major event in the industry, the LED industry in the period of historical change is welcoming the “most dangerous situation”.

The operation status of large and medium-sized enterprises has become an important basis for influencing industry practitioners to judge the industry trend and assess the current industry reality.

Industry knockouts enter the "deep water zone"

In 2014, companies such as Philips, Sunshine Lighting, Sanxiong, Aurora and other lighting giants increased their profits, and while increasing their investment in the LED lighting market, they gradually reduced the sales price of lighting fixtures.

In the price competition of products, the addition of big brands has made the small and medium-sized enterprises that make a living from "low price" competition fall into the embarrassing situation of "small profits and small profits."

"Basically, most companies fail because the company can't afford the supplier's payment, but because it can't get a profitable order. In the process, once the product has quality problems, the company is likely to get no refund. "Aiming at the reporter's question, Zhang Hongbiao, research director of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, said.

Since 2014, the domestic lighting industry has stepped out of the development stage of “staking a horse” in the past, and has turned into a big competition with comprehensive strengths such as technical products and capital, and a horizontal integration stage of the industrial chain. The contrast between the lighting companies has gradually widened, and the knockouts in the lighting industry have begun to enter the deep water area.

"Many LED companies have high expectations for the LED lighting industry, thinking that the industry will have explosive growth and blind investment. In fact, LED lighting products are just a substitute, and investment and harvest are often not directly proportional. Hu Jin, director of marketing planning for Sunshine Lighting's domestic marketing center, told the reporter of Gaogong LED.

Looking at the enterprises that have closed down this year, regardless of their own positioning, blind expansion, resulting in tight cash flow until the complete break is the main reason for the current corporate failure. Hu Wei believes that with the in-depth advancement of the LED lighting industry, the competitive landscape of the LED lighting market will see new changes.

"Failure" will be the norm "every year, there are so many companies going bankrupt, this year is even more so. In my opinion, in the years when the market order has not been standardized, the collapse should be the norm." BYD Lighting LED Application Development Center is responsible for People Tang Jun stressed.

Since 2013, the LED lighting industry has changed its past trend, and the downstream application market demand has continued to grow rapidly beyond expectations. In 2014, it was defined as the first year of the LED home lighting market.

However, under the background of the first year, it is the beginning of the market's survival of the fittest and deep integration of the industry.

According to the statistics of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute (GLII), the total output value of China's LED industry will reach 344.50 billion yuan in 2014, up 31% year-on-year, of which the downstream application value is 275.7 billion yuan, up 32% year-on-year.

On the one hand, it is a high-growth LED lighting product market, and on the other hand, it is a company that has been frequently exposed and has lost its connection.

In the second half of 2014, the boss lost contact and the factory closed down. From the failure of the Sichuan Yuanli Optoelectronics CEO in September this year, the relatives of Zhongshan Fengguang Lighting’s relatives lost in October, and then in November, Shenzhen Lihefeng’s boss ran away, and in December, Juliang’s owner owed more than 200 million yuan. Union...

"The poor business management mainly comes from the big environment and the problems of the company itself. However, the LED lighting industry is a very sunny industry. It is precisely because of this that the company's own business is the main reason." Li Xiong, Aurora brand manager Li Quan said .

Strong demand and fierce competition are the most prominent features of the current LED lighting industry. Looking at the industrial environment through the phenomenon of “running the road”, in the case of a good LED lighting market, the construction of standards, testing and certification systems needs to be improved, which also leads to market competition and orderly quality, and product quality is uneven.

In the case of uneven enterprise development, small enterprises have small production capacity and low market positioning. Even if they increase production, their competitiveness is not as good as that of large enterprises. Although the price war can become a temporary gimmick, it will eventually lead to a decline in product quality, and eventually fall into a vicious circle of competition for large-scale losses. The event of Juliang Optoelectronics is a very obvious example.

The eye is red in the huge "cake" of LED lighting. A group of enterprises represented by Juliang Optoelectronics have extended their original main business scale to the lighting field. In this expansion process, although it will bring high-volume orders to its suppliers, once the company has problems, it will be a major blow to a large number of supply companies behind it. In fact, in the process of speeding up LED lighting in traditional lighting transformation, real problems such as low gross profit margin are also threatening the middle and upper reaches of LED lighting. In order to "grab" orders from large and medium-sized enterprises, many upstream and midstream chip, packaging and accessory materials companies have to accept customers for three months or even up to six months.

"If you don't pick up these orders, you are looking for death, and the orders for these long-term accounts may be 'waiting for death'." The CEO of a parts and materials company is quite helpless, saying that if they compare, they may not die, but they may not pick up. Orders will die soon, so many accessory materials companies can only accept the "wait for death."

"At the end of the year, it is the peak period for the settlement of corporate funds, and it is also a key node to test the repayment ability of borrowing enterprises." Zhang Hongbiao believes that the company's poor operation and uncontrolled capital operation can easily lead to "difficulties in recovery of goods"; Frequently staged.

The transformation of the pain is "close"

The development of the industry will ultimately be based on market demand. LED lighting as an alternative to lighting, although the market demand is strong, but not in direct proportion to the number of enterprises in the industry and the output value. At the enthusiasm of lighting transformation, enterprises want to get tickets to enter the "post-lighting era", which is tantamount to "Wanma squeezes a single tree."

"The normal development of the company is inseparable from its own positioning, but in the 'deep water area' of the development of the industry, the tide of closure is an inevitable path for the industry to go to standardization." Zhou Shuiming, general manager of Jiamei Lighting Marketing, told reporters.

There are indications that the LED lighting industry is accelerating on the road to transformation. On the one hand, the overall output value of LED lighting is growing steadily. On the other hand, LED lighting has been widely accepted by the market and has completely sunk to the third- and fourth-line prefecture-level markets. Moreover, with the influx of traditional lighting, the disorderly competition in the LED lighting industry has gradually been reversed by large companies.

This change is mainly reflected in the changes in the market policy of large enterprises. Take Philips as an example. Since the beginning of this year, Philips has released several super-cost-effective lighting fixtures, and gradually seized the leading position in the domestic lighting market. A large number of small and medium-sized enterprises have been eliminated.

In the domestic market, this year, Sanxiong Aurora has released several very cost-effective LED downlights. In addition to their own brand and quality advantages, these downlights have already been compared with the average price of second- and third-line brands in the market. Leveling. In the face of the "price reduction tide" of big companies like Sanxiong and Philips, the products of domestic small and medium-sized enterprises have no advantage.

The various kinds of industrial disasters are similar to the "collapse" and "missing" pains, which is the insurmountable cost and cost of climbing the LED lighting industry. Only by paying more attention to deepening reforms and accelerating structural adjustment can we stabilize development.

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